Plan/Goal for 15k Tomorrow

Tomorrow I'm running a 15k (my first). My original goal was to use this race as a taper run and not worry about pace at all. This club doesn't have big turnout for races and I don't expect this 15k to be big at all, but I figured at least seeing other runners (even if I'm not actually running alongside anyone) would be better than running alone. But my plan has changed! What's a race if you're not racing???

I read an article in this month's Runners World that talked about benchmark runs a couple weeks out from a goal race. Perfect! I have "permission" to race. I just don't want to get injured or push too hard and not be able to run the half to the best of my ability. The RW article recommended what type of run to do for each race distance. I'm not going to stick to what they recommend for a half marathon (10 to 15 x 1000 meters at race pace with 60 seconds recovery- I don't speak running fluently and don't even know what that means), but for a full marathon they recommend 16 miles at race pace. If I put those numbers into a ratio, my benchmark run for a half marathon would be 8 miles at race pace. What's an extra 1.3 miles for good measure?

Some boring math that probably only matters to me:

• Half marathon goal 2:14:59 = 10:18/mile
  

• If I run the 15k at race pace of 10:18/mile, my goal time will be 1:35:47

• But according to the pace prediction calculator, I'd have to run the 15k in 1:34:07 to make my goal of sub 2:15 in the half. This would be a pace of 10:06/mile

Seems like a lot of splitting hairs, for what's all just a bunch of prediction anyway.

I've run 8, 9, and 10 miles right around the 10:40/mile pace and I've never pushed the pace on my my long runs. The goal has always been completion.

I read a blog entry several weeks ago about women setting goals for running. I tried finding it so I could link to it, but I can't find it again. The general idea of it was that women tend to set easy goals so they won't fail. But then you never really push yourself. So I'm going big. My goal for this race is 1:34:07. If I can do that, it will be pretty predictive of my half marathon pace.

According to WeatherBug, the temperature at race time should be around 57 degrees, but with a 10-15mph south wind. I'm not exactly sure what I'll wear. I'm going to try running with my new SPIBelt instead of the bulky amphipod since water will be provided on the course. I bought an iPod Shuffle last night so I can carry it instead of my phone. I'm just trying to make myself lighter on race days. I'm not sure it matters a lot, but maybe it will be more comfortable.